Risk profiles of coastal hazards in mainland Portugal at the civil parish level

Abstract

This study assesses coastal risk in mainland Portugal at the civil parish level, combining hazard, exposure, and social vulnerability indicators under different sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios for 2040, 2070, and 2100. Results reveal that both hazard zones and exposed urban areas are projected to expand considerably, with exposure emerging as the main driver of future risk. Cluster analysis identifies differentiated vulnerability profiles across regions, emphasizing the importance of integrating these indicators into coastal management frameworks. The findings support the design of adaptive and equitable policies to enhance resilience and reduce SLR-related risks.