Analyse statistique de l’impact des changements climatiques sur la répartition spatio-temporelle des précipitations dans le Nord de la région de Abda (Province de Safi – Maroc)

Abstract

This study analyzes the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the northern Abda region (Safi Province, Morocco) between 1961 and 2020. Using statistical techniques such as double-mass analysis, the CUSUM method, and frequency analysis, the results reveal significant interannual and regional fluctuations, with alternating wet and dry periods. These variations directly affect water resources and agricultural activities in a semi-arid context increasingly affected by climate change. The findings emphasize the need for adaptive water management strategies to mitigate drought impacts and ensure sustainable resource use.